SPATSIZI FISHING TRIP 2019 – JOHN & JACK BLACK

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Lunch al fresco by Lake Stalk with guide Cam, Pilot,Guide,Chef Tim and a thoughtful Jack

SPATSIZI FISHING TRIP 2019 – JOHN & JACK BLACK

Category:Recreational Research Tags : 

Recreational Research on the local trout at Spatsizi Wilderness Lodge.

Wow! A double rainbow crowns a wet and cold Brisbane CBD this morning as Jack & I head off for a week of fly-fishing in northern Canada #Spatsizi. It was Jack’s turn for the adventure of a lifetime with his old man … which would be me, folks.

Wow! A double rainbow crowns a wet and cold Brisbane CBD this morning as Jack & I head off for a week of fly-fishing in northern Canada #Spatsizi.

My fly-fishing companion #Spatsizi son Jack, chillaxin’ before the Air Canada Vancouver flight this morning. For those who’ve never experienced it, the Brisbane to Vancouver direct flight to Vancouver is one of the best international flights there is. Even better with a pass to the Brisbane Air Canada lounge.

My fly-fishing companion #Spatsizi son Jack, chillaxin’ before the Air Canada Vancouver flight this morning.

Fortunately, Jack was on hand to help the Air Canada pilots fly big jet across the Pacific. Well, to be honest, we’d already landed.

Fortunately, Jack was on hand to help the Air Canada pilots fly big jet across the Pacific. Well, to be honest, we’d already landed.

After a quiet night in lovely downtown Smithers, the next day – Day 1 of the trip – saw Jack and I heading off for a week’s Recreational Research on the local trout at #Spatsizi with Alpine Lakes Air. Not bad runway, eh? as the Canadians would say.

Jack and I heading off for a week's Recreational Research on the local trout at #Spatsizi with Alpine Lakes Air.

To follow the rest of our trip please click  Spatsizi Fishing Trip 2019 – John and Jack Black – Final.pdf

We hope you enjoy reading about our journey.


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Malcolm Turnbull campaigns in Caboolture, in the Queensland seat of Longman.

Divining votes all about swings and roundabouts at by-elections

Category:By-Elections Tags : 

Provided your humble correspondent is not eaten by a grizzly bear next week while trout-hunting in the wilds of northwest Canada, he will be back in time to help our team sift through the demographics of Super Saturday.

We will be looking for demographically driven swings across the booths in Longman and Braddon that are consistent with the swings we saw in New Eng­land and Bennelong; and tangible links between these patterns of swing and the policy offerings of the government and the opposition, especially as they relate to the hip-pocket nerve.

I’m looking particularly at swings by voters concerned with imputation tax increases for retirees and ­income tax increases for aspirational voters.

If we can see patterns among bigger demographic groups living in marginal seats then we can draw some inferences as to their impact at the next federal election. The other seats will provide a bit of a sideshow to the main event in Longman and Braddon.

South Australia’s Mayo, for ­example, is a seat a popular, local Liberal should have won back easily from former Nick Xenophon protege Rebekha Sharkie, who won Mayo from the less-than-popular local Liberal MP Jamie Briggs. However, polls show about 60 per cent of Mayo’s new generation of prosperous and professional commuters support Sharkie over the Downer dynasty’s Georgina Downer. After generations of political mulishness that has splintered the ­Coalition vote in South Australia — dating back to the original Liberal Movement — the Adelaide political establishment, like the old French aristocracy, learns nothing and forgets nothing.

The two West Australian by-elections of Fremantle and Perth will be interesting as a guide to how many intending Liberal voters, when denied a candidate, will vote for Labor over the Greens. Way too many to cancel the loss of Mayo, would be my guess.

Let’s look at what we know.

Last year’s by-elections in New England and Bennelong showed an average swing to the government of 1 per cent and a range of swings across the booths of about 12 per cent. The biggest swings against the government were in urban Bennelong booths dominated by progressive Left Sydney voters who hated having to vote yes in the same-sex marriage plebiscite and by conservatives who hated losing.

However, urban middle-class mainstream voters could not see what the fuss was about and quietly saved Liberal John Alexander.

In New England, Nationals flag-bearer Barnaby Joyce had his vote boosted by the big group of Howard battlers who had drifted back to Labor since 2007. We’re talking here about welfare recipients, tradies and hospitality workers living in rented accom­­mo­­­­dation in country towns where they can find affordable housing.

Battlers are also pretty thick on the ground in Longman in Queensland, a state where, in 2004, about one in seven electors voted for Labor premier Peter Beattie at the state election and then for Coalition prime minister John Howard eight months later at the federal election. This splitting of votes at state and federal elections is a characteristic of the Howard battler, a demographic that can be sentimentally supportive of favourite leaders but ruthless towards parties they regard as taking them for granted — especially with their Senate votes.

The trick for politicians is to match the sentimental rhetoric with what these voters see as their economic self-interest.

In Longman, they voted for Beattie because they saw themselves as Labor supporters and they voted for Howard because he stopped the boats, looked after their pensions and made the economy run on time. They had no problem holding what many commentators would regard as contradictory positions.

Plenty of Howard battlers are found in Braddon, where one in seven locals split their primary vote in the last state and federal elections. In mid-2016 the federal primary Liberal vote was 41.5 per cent for MP Brett Whiteley, but the primary vote for state Liberal candidates in March this year was 56.1 per cent.

In Longman and Braddon, polls are showing an average swing towards the Coalition of about 2 per cent, meaning both seats could go either way next Saturday. This is broadly consistent with the 1 per cent average swing to the government in New Eng­land and Bennelong, perhaps even a slight improvement for the Coalition.

Given some of the economic difficulties facing the federal government, compounded by its gaffes, even a small swing to the Coalition on its 2016 figures in these two seats would be exceptional, especially considering that Labor’s new MPs in Long­man and Braddon would have seen their vote rise by a couple of per cent since 2016 because of the personal vote benefits of ­incumbency.

Any opposition should comfortably win by-elections in seats it already holds. It should come close to winning more marginal seats like Bennelong.

Hopefully the demographic range of swings across the booths in Braddon and Longman will shed some light on why the opposition is underperforming and tell us what this could mean at the federal election due before the middle of May next year.

I’ll be paying particular attention to the range of swings across booths dominated by the different income groups to see which tax policies look like winning the most votes — with the opposition favouring those earning below $90,000 a year and the Coalition favouring those earning above that amount, particularly up to $200,000.

Like my Canadian trout taking a breather in a deep pool on their upstream spawning run, taxpayers tend to concentrate in income tax ranges just below a big jump in their marginal tax rate, so we’ll check the reaction from working voters who aspire to earn more.

We will see if we can discern any impact from the reductions in dividend imputation for retirees, although this one could be messy in practice.

With this sort of research, we go where the evidence leads us and we could see, for example, some impact from the campaign run by Catholic education against some of the federal funding ­reforms, which would be easy enough to measure given the ­detail in our education database.

We may see some increased support for the government’s quiet cuts in immigration, which would show as an increased vote for the Coalition among the huge mainstream groups of English-speaking and Australian-born. It’s pretty hard to lose an Australian election when you’re getting a swing towards you from Australian-born voters.

My working hypothesis is that Labor is making gains among younger, professional voters, ­especially those benefiting from the opposition’s big spending promises on new jobs in health and education.

We find these voters in the high-priced houses of the inner cities, the city seaside suburbs or bigger blocks with a view in the outer suburbs. But the Liberals should be able to withstand this sort of movement in what are typically their more comfortable urban seats, unless they repeat the mistakes of Mayo.

Labor is also making gains in Sydney and Melbourne among some conservative, non-English speaking migrant groups living in safe Labor seats, who respond well to big-spending promises as they are direct beneficiaries. However, these gains in votes by Labor often don’t bring commensurate gains in seats.

The Coalition seems to be still going well among middle-class, Australian-born families in mainstream urban areas and among Howard battlers in the middle to outer suburbs and in some pro­vincial city-rural seats. This is not the picture of a comfortable Labor majority, either in votes or in seats.

Roll on, Super Saturday, and I’ll report back if the bears don’t get me first.


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GFC-impact-on-three-sectors

2017 EDUCATION STATS ROUND UP

Category:Education

Here is a summary of slides presented in late 2017 to Principals, Vice Principals, Business Managers and Marketers.

Data is sourced from the five yearly Census results, the annual ABS school census, My School, ABS Labour Market releases, Digital Finance Analytics and Education Geographics Research.

These slides show

  • The characteristics of suburbs where each sector has been gaining or losing enrolments and market share (not always the same thing).
  • The national impact of the GFC on longer term enrolment trends for each sector.
  • The state wide impact of the decline in manufacturing and mining jobs for each Education sector.
  • Longer and shorter term impact on Independent school enrolments across increasing school fee ranges.
  • Maps at SA4 Labour Force Region level showing spatial impact of the labour market changes since the GFC.
  • The longer term impact of Digital Disruption on working family jobs for Tradies and Clerks, the jobs which pay school fees for one in four Independent school students.
  • The impact of longer term trends in tertiary education and marriages for Gen X Catholic mothers.
  • What could happen to young highly geared Independent school families when interest rates start to rise.
  • Recurrent themes of change for the three sectors.
  • How Non-Government schools can take charge of Big Data and think spatially and demographically to minimise risk and maximise opportunities.

 

Click on link to view:  http://www.healthgeographics.net.au/PDF/2017 Stats Round Up.pdf

 


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NEW ENGLAND AND BENNELONG BY-ELECTIONS

Category:Election Profiles Tags : 

See for yourself in our Esri online map how local demographics fed into the results in New England and Bennelong by-elections and the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite.

Click on the link to the map below. It will open with a default map of the Bennelong estimated 2PP swing to the Liberals, with the dark blue streets swinging slightly to the Liberals and the lighter areas swinging strongly to Labor. Now click on the Layer icon layer-esri-map - New England and Bennelong By Elections, NSW, Australia at top right of your screen to open the Layer list. You can see the legend in the map by clicking on the small arrow to the left of the layer called Bennelong Liberal-Swing . You can click on the layer Bennelong Polling Booths Bennelong-Booths - New-England-Bennelong-By Elections to show each booth and click on the booth icon itself to see the results.

Save this map of the swing by taking a screen snip or leave it Benelong-Liberal-Swing - New-England and Bennelong-Elections, NSW Australia open in another screen and then click off the swing and open the other Bennelong layers. You can open more than one at a time and see the impact of the various demographics on the swing. So you can open Layers for creative arts, Green votes and Agnostics, to see the combined impact of all three. This isn’t rigorous statistical modelling, but it gives you an idea of how it works.

The strongest predictor of the swing was not the Bennelong Chinese born males (or females), but Bennelong Males with No Religion. These Agnostics at the National level were the strongest supporters of the Yes vote in the Same Sex Marriage Plebiscite and when we fed this variable into the modelling, ethnicity did not contribute any additional explaining power. Chinese born persons in Bennelong tend to be Agnostics, but it was their lack of religion, rather than their ethnicity which tended to accompany the biggest political swings to Labor in Bennelong.  This shows us we should look past obvious ethnic stereotypes if we’re trying to explain voting behaviour.

When you have finished with Bennelong, you can click on the Bookmark icon  Bookmark-New England and Bennelong By Elections, NSW, Australia at top left and select New England which opens a default map showing the estimated 2PP swing to the Nationals, with the darker green areas registering the largest pro-National swing. Once again, save a copy of this map and compare it to those larger local demographics most strongly linked to the by-election swing to the Nationals: 2016 ALP voters, Tradies, or those demographics dominating the booths with smallest by-election swings to the Nationals: in this case men working in the Agricultural industry.  We reversed the direction of the legend in this last one so the areas with the darker green colouring contain the fewest farmers and farm workers and the biggest pro-National swings. This confirms that the smallest swings to a party often occur in the areas of strongest support for the same party.

Click on the map or link below to view.

New England and Bennelong By-Elections - See for yourself in our Esri online map how local demographics fed into the results in New England and Bennelong by-elections and the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite. See for yourself in our Esri online map how the local demographics fed into the results in New England and Bennelong.

https://egs-au.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=cd901e880d5e44aabcae6a86cd8b0edd


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THE ORIGINAL ONE NATION PROFILE

Category:Election Profiles Tags : 

Back in 1998 the major parties were under pressure from One Nation, particularly in the State of Queensland, where the fledgling party scored well amongst the older, rural, Australian born, less well educated and those with low-income, blue collar jobs. Fast forward to 2011 and the major parties are again under pressure with Green and Independent votes on the rise. This research piece, originally done for the Courier Mail in 1998, profiles the antecedents of the rural protest vote.

One Nation VoteCourier Mail September 22 1998_1.pdf


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EDUCATION SECTOR CHANGES 2008-2015

Category:Education Tags : 

Comparison-Map, Education Sector Changes Australia

 

The Australian economy has been hit by a series of economic upheavals and mixed economic responses from Governments since the GFC of 2008.

These factors have totally transformed the nature of the Australian Education Market as shown by the interractive ESRI Australia maps which can be seen by clicking on the above picture.

The maps are based on school SA4 campus location and enrolment data collected from the Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority, via the My School website. The reader should note some schools on the edges of an SA4 will draw in students from adjoining SA4 labour force regions.

The maps show Independent market share for 2008 in the map on the left, Independent market share for 2015 in the centre map and Independent market share changes between 2008 and 2015 in the map at right. All three maps can be zoomed and moved in unison via the left hand map, enabling the reader to make easy comparisons for identical regions.

The reader can see that the regions with the highest Independent market share in 2008 (typically wealthier, inner urban areas) have been the areas where the sector has lost most market share between 2008 and 2015. This loss of market share has gone overwhelmingly to the state school sector, via high SES or semi-independent State schools. In the lower income, outer urban areas, the trend has been in the reverse direction, with the state school sector losing students to low fee Independent schools.


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ALP 2016 Electorate Analysis

DEMOGRAPHIC GUIDE TO 2016 ELECTIONS

Category:Election Profiles Tags : 

ADS, in conjunction with ESRI and Map Data Services, have produced a dashboard and linked interactive maps, to show you the key voting stereotypes for the 2016 Australian election and where you can find them. Click on the icon above for the Post Election ADS.Elect Dashboard and Maps. You will find all of the vote and swing stereotypes and related maps for every Australian electorate.

Post Election ADS.Elect Dashboard

Click on Post Election ADS.Elect Dashboard for full screen viewing.

ALP 2016 Electorate Analysis and Voter Profiles by Electorate

http://www.elaborate.net.au/ADSElect2016 PostVote.htm

[iframe src=”http://www.elaborate.net.au/ADSElect2016 PostVote.htm”]

Pre Election ADS.Elect Dashboard

Click on Pre Election ADS.Elect Dashboard for full screen viewing.

ADS Electoral Profiles


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Grizzly Bears - Smithers Airport

WE’RE BACK! SPATSIZI LODGE, BC

Category:Recreational Research Tags : 

Now I’m a sensitive Green kind of guy, but when you’re up this close, I think it’s fair to say that Grizzly Bears look much better stuffed and inside a glass case.

This big fella is part of the welcoming committee at Smithers Airport. It reminds you that you’re a guest here in this part of the world and also that it pays you to keep your eyes and ears open.

The welcoming party at Smithers Airport. Fortunately for us, this one was in a glass case.

Also joining us at the airport was our expeditor Wendy, who was a lot friendlier than this bloke.

All I needed to do was stand next to anyone I saw carrying a fly rod for the expeditor to find us, load our bags and whip us off to the local hotel for dinner.

The next morning saw us at a local lake getting loaded aboard Wendell’s wonderful Turbo Otter, for the 90-minute flight to Spatsizi. While the rest jumped in the back, alongside our groceries for the week, I got to ride in front with Wendell and I felt like the honorary co-pilot. Wendell even let me pull on the heater control for the rear cabin …

Flyfishing Spatsizi BC, heading off to the lodge in Wendell's Turbo Otter..Woo Hoo

But seriously, I was loving all of it: the noise, the whiff of plane fuel, the power of the take-off over water and then the climb, and finally the scenery below and the anticipation. I was a big boy on an adventure!

 

Fly fishing at Spatsizi. Brother Steve with catch of the day...an eight pound bull trout. With gun guide Florian.

Brothers are brothers, aren’t they? It would be an exaggeration to say my brother Steve was a gun fly fisherperson. He turned up in all the wrong gear but evidently the right attitude and caught the biggest fish on the first day, a bad-tempered Arctic Char.

I sniffily told him it was all about the quality not the size.

Fly fishing at Spatsizi BC today with very cooperative rainbow trout. Great first day in a beautiful part of the world.

Now this was definitely the prettiest fish caught by yours truly on the first day. An absolutely beautiful rainbow trout, held gently for just long enough for our guide Florian to take this shot and then released from a barbless hook. Like I said, it was all about the quality.

Fly Fishing Spatsizi BC. Day 2, Sun rising over Spatsizi Lodge. Another beautiful day in paradise.

Heading down to the Lodge for another of Chef Jesse’s wonderful breakfasts.

Fly fishing at Spatsizi BC. A rather irritated rainbow trout in the Rognass River today ....released soon after.

Today we fished the Rognass River adjoining Lake Kitchener and the Rainbow Trout chased flies voraciously, but then turned nasty when the fly didn’t stay eaten.

 

Fly Fishing at Spatsizi BC. Big Brother at evening post dinner drinks outside the Lodge. Another beautiful day.

Well, here we were, with my Big Brother and fellow director Steve, finding time to chat about company marketing and contracting strategies. Our main items of discussion centered on the impact of the new US Administration on inflation in the US and its impact for our CPI. With no local inflation to speak of, we have been using five-year fixed term contracts for our dashboard modelling. The clients love it.

But if the new Administration actually starts to simulate the US economy, we need to start marking our product to the prices in the marketplace. But will Trump really deliver?

Our fellow fly fisherpersons were all from the US and tended to have a bit of skin in this particular game, so it was all research. Aided by Oban on ice at this particular meeting.

 

Flyfishing at Spatsizi BC. Nature studies of local lupins after streamside diversion while working out how to do up the waders.

My Great Grandfather and Father were botanists. I’m more of a stats man, myself. But these lupins were just plain pretty and worth sharing.

John Black - just finished four day fly outs at Spatsizi. Loving it. A man's best friend is a float plane.

Well, here we were, mid-week, back outside the Lodge for another scheduled board meeting to discuss international inflationary trends and the gig economy.

Man, by this time, I was feeling the vibe. Pass me a cigar.

Roughing it as Spatsizi Lodge with the local version of Caesar Salad. Thanks to C

Our Chef Jesse Phillips was a culinary genius and a perfectionist of the plate. Now this, apparently, was a Caesar Salad. The trip was worth it for the food alone.

Camp fire last night at Firesteel River Lodge.

I must confess, my idea of roughing it these days, is going without the heated seat on my Japanese Toto bidet toilet. But Firesteel Camp was an experience I’d repeat in a heartbeat … even with the long drop and the animal scratch marks on the dunny door.

This is the camp fire outside our hut, with the river in the background. Why the morning camp fire I hear you ask? See next Instagram shot.

 

Spatsizi - 9 am this morning at Firesteel River ...mid Summer in north BC. If you look closely you can see the little red bar at 5 degrees centigrade. It warmed up to 6 degrees by 10.00am.

Well, here’s the reason for a morning camp fire at Firesteel Camp. Five degrees! And this was summer! It was colder than the winter mornings we’d left behind in Brisbane.

We mooched around camp until the sun was well and truly up.

#Spatsizi - Firesteel river rainbow ....small but perfectly formed.

Firesteel has squillions of these little three-quarter pounders … and they all think they weigh five pounds and feel obliged to fight like it. It was a grey, windy day, which pushed most of the fish down deep, where we chased them on nymphs, but on a warm, sunny day, you’d be catching and releasing 50 of the little blighters.

 

Spatsizi....beaver lodge on the Firesteel River. These little guys would definitely not win the better housekeeping award.

These beavers are odd little creatures. They tend to gum up waterways and spawning grounds for the fish with their wood-reinforced dams and lodges so they aren’t the favourite animals for fishing guides. And are they messy! Worse than teenage boys.

I fished near this beaver lodge and had to make sure that I didn’t fall into their access hole, about a metre in diameter.

John Black - yours truly today catching rainbow trout number 30 at Sheep Creek and Lake Kitchener #Spatsizi BC. It was 3 degrees with a 15 knot wind and driving rain. Completely nuts.

Now I know fishing isn’t about the numbers of fish you catch in a day and nor is it about the size of the biggest fish … although the size comes close.

But sometimes, after months of fishing on tranquil Aussie high-country trout streams, where you might land a couple of careless, one or two-pound fish on a really good day, well, you just want to feel you haven’t lost your touch.

On days like this, personal comforts come last and numbers do count. It’s a man-hunter thing I guess.

In this case – at the Sheep Creek outflow into Lake Kitchener – our personal comfort level was at an all-time low, with three degrees the top temperature and a chilly 15 knot wind blowing straight in our faces, but Steve and I pulled in and released 40 fine, fat, and ultimately very relieved, Canadian Rainbow Trout.

Towards the end of the day, Steve had broken his rod and the stump had to be pulled from his frozen fingers to make him to stop.

In my case, my waterproof jacket had started to leak icy water down my back and arms and my teeth were chattering so much I couldn’t speak. Did I mention my Hardy Hip Flask was also empty?

There were no arguments then. It was time to go.

Spatsizi - After a day's fishing in 3 degrees and wind chill here's our entree from Chef Jess: Capresse Salad with tomato three ways, smoked Buffalo Mozzarella and Balsamic reduction. Yum..

Here’s another entree plate from super Chef Jesse. What a guy! I realise now that I only ever took pictures of the entrees, because the main course and deserts just got scoffed down.

Spatsizi- Our fishing companion. Carl yesterday with four pound rainbow trout from Lake Rainbow ...where else?

On this particular day, our patience was well and truly tested by some very fussy Rainbow Lake trout. At the end of the day, I was calling it No Rainbow Lake. I think I hooked three two pounders, which is pretty good by Australian standards, but well below the bar set by Spatsizi’s bountiful lakes and rivers.

To make matters worse, our very gentlemanly US fly fishing companion for the day Carl, a retired Academic, seemed to have no difficulty pulling in some plump and friendly Canadian Rainbows.

These trout were simply too discerning to be more readily hooked by a couple of big boofy Aussies. Bah. Humbug. And well done Carl.

Spatsizi - Steve pats Abbie our travelling companion for today's pursuit of grayling.

Today we were off with senior guide Luke and Abbie the wonder dog, to pursue the beautiful Grayling, a salmonoid species I’d never hooked before. However, no one seems to have told Abbie she was definitely coming with us.

Spatsizi - Our fantastic foodies. Chef Jesse and assistant Twila preparing our breakfast today.

Our Heroes of the Kitchen. Jesse and his Assistant Twila. I go all misty eyed just thinking about the food they served us, morning, and night.

#Spatsizi - loading up with Royal Humpies to chase Grayling today.

We had the tip-off from the boys who had been chasing Grayling the day before: It was Royal Humpies all the way. So, yours truly, in a spirit of down-under sportsmanship, bought every Royal Humpy in the Spatsizi fly shop. Hey! Someone had to have them.

#Spatsizi - Abbie is keen to get started with Steve and I today, chasing Grayling.

Abbie was pretty keen to come Grayling fishing with us. This was her at breakfast. By this time, she was getting a tad neurotic at the thought of missing out.

Abbie the Spatsizi Lodge mascot looking pensive this morning...do I get to come Grayling fishing with Steve and John?

Abbie started to tense up as we loaded the boat. Room for me? Room for me?

A relieved Abbie got to come Grayling fishing -#Spatsizi today.

Yay! This was one very happy pooch, as we set off up the Stikine River to chase Grayling on our last day.

A bear proof food locker @Spatsizi on the walk to the Grayling hole today...I'd have opened it to show you if I could have, but it was a little too complicated for me.

Words fail me here folks. This is a true story. Your humble scribe from down under could not open the bear proof locker, provided for overnight campers to store their food.

Now, that means that the local bears are very smart or your local scribe is very … where was I again?

One of 30 Grayling your humble author caught today #Spatsizi

Here I am with one of 30 Grayling hooked and released on our last day, along with 12 Rainbow Trout and two Arctic Char. These Grayling were just beautiful little fish. And the greatest gutses for a Royal Humpy (Shame Steve didn’t have one). They fought like little Bonefish too.

Looking back on this picture, I may have overdone it with the zinc cream, but it was a hot day. And a great day.

Well, this is it. The fishing is over and we’re waiting for Wendell to take us on the first leg home.

Wendell arrives #Spatsizi - we're heading home. With no fish on the line, I’ve been reduced to photographing Petunias. Still, they were pretty.

Petunias et al on the verandah #Spatsizi ...trip completed and we're now waiting for Wendell and his Turbo Otter to start the trip home.

Here comes the Turbo. Here comes the Turbo. Woo Hoo! Homeward bound.

Just back home from Spatsizi northern BC, Canada. My five favourite flies from the trip: from left Tom Thumb, Royal Humpy, Prince Nymph, Mouse and Woolly Bugger, which between them cause and released 100 Grayling, Rainbow Trout and Artic Char. All of them were thoroughly mangled out the bit marks on the Mouse.

Now the caption says it all really. These were the flies which were really hammered by the local piscatorial pirates during our Spatsizi stop over.

The mouse fly was a complete write off and the cork you see here is now blue tacked to my central computer screen as I type. Ah, the memories. Enough to keep me sane for another year. I’m already booked for 2018.

 

A few facts.

You can find out most of what you need to know about Spatsizi at http://www.spatsizi.com/ Seven days of fly-in, fly out fishing will set you back about $8,000 Australian dollars and the Aussie dollar now (August 2017) has parity with the Canadian dollar. Allow about 10 to 15 percent cash for gratuities at the end of the trip.

Our Air Canada flight flew nonstop Brisbane to Vancouver. We went business class and it was a hoot. Sets you back about $6,000, but the beds were comfortable and the service friendly and practical.

We left mid-morning and arrived 14 hours later about four hours before we took off. Something to do with datelines. There’s a bit of a wait before the afternoon flight to Smithers, which you can fill in however you like. I think we got liquored up in the business lounge.

On the trip home, book the afternoon flight back from Smithers and make sure you pay a bit more to have the option of the later flight if the weather delays your trip in from the Lodge.

The flight back from Vancouver to Brisbane was a real treat. It leaves Vancouver at midnight and gets in about 7.30 am Brisbane time a couple of days later – where did that missing day go? Basically, you knock over a few wallbangers after take-off and hit the sack for about nine hours, before being gently woken up for breakfast, just before you land in Brisbane. Worked for me.

For Travel bookings, I contacted my old mate Emily, from Tripaway at Emily@tripaway.com.au

She did all the bookings and travel advisories and talked to Jacki at Spatsizi to make sure it all went well. There’s no hurry booking flights, but Spatsizi fishing places tend to fill up a year in advance, so get in early there if you want to try it in mid-2018.


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Owen River Lodge

OWEN RIVER LODGE HIGHLIGHTS 2015/16

Category:Recreational Research Tags : 

Owen River Lodge - South Island, New Zealand

 

Running a fishing lodge can be a complex thing. There are so many variables to take into account, without doubt, the weather has a significant impact on the trout fishery and therefore the fishing.

In our early season the weather cooperated brilliantly. November & December saw clear rivers, sunny days and little wind. The results speak for themselves…….

14lb_wild_brown_trout_owen_river_odge, south island, new zealand

Andrew from Sydney’s first trip to ORL was for his honeymoon in 2010. He’s subsequently stayed with us a further 3 times including a quick 4 day trip in early November.
He landed 11 wild brown’s in his 3 days fishing including a sensational 11 lb monster and 2 x 8lb, 2 x 6lb 3 x 5lb and a 4lb wild brown !

In early December, 3 anglers landed 3 wild New Zealand browns and each of them set apersonal record. The 3 browns weighed in at 9lb, 12 lb and new lodge record of 14lb.
There was no expensive helicopter required, as all these browns were caught in our local, drive to rivers!

fly_fishing_dry_fly_NZ, Owen River Lodge, South Island, New Zealand

To be honest during our summer (January > March) the weather was rubbish. It was unusually windy and wet. This made the fishing, at times, challenging, however with the help of the wonderful fishing guides that work with us our guests still caught fish and had some memorable moments on the river.

Vaughan and Bess are regular Australian guests @ Owen River Lodge. Whilst Bess went horse riding, Vaughan had some sensational fishing over 4 days of angling adventure. In a 2 day period he landed over 25 wild browns in the 3 > 5 lb range !

fly_fishing_Owen River Lodge, South Island, New Zealand

Robin & Andrew, from the UK, stayed and fished with us in February. They had some unbelievable fishing, landing 20 browns averaging 4lbs in one day and landing over 50 browns in 6 days

Howard, one of our most regular guests, had four sensational days fishing with his guide David in late March. In his 4 days fishing he landed 24 wild browns including an 8lb & a 9lb caught on consecutive days in the Owen River !

Owen River Lodge, South Island, New Zealand_Fishing_Owen_River_November_2015_Rene_Vaz


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TRADIES UP, BUT CLERKS & SALES JOBS DISAPPEAR

Category:Labour Market Tags : 

The national Year on Year employment to population ratio and the participation rate stopped their downward slide during the February labour market quarter and during the May quarter both were moving in a positive direction.

If we smooth the original data out to a 12-month moving average we see the start of what looks like an upward turning point in the employment trends to the end of May and the national figures for June and July were reasonably encouraging.

But a detailed examination of the figures by industry and occupation infer some caution should be exercised.

Industry and Occupational Breakdown of National Data.

By industry, over the past year, agriculture continued what looks like a long term structural decline in jobs, manufacturing showed some signs of life, but construction was still in good shape, as was hospitality.

IT and Media had some short-term gains, but the only consistently strong private sector industry remained Professional Services, (such as lawyers, architects, engineers, accountants) with nearly 63,000 jobs created over the past year and 300,000 jobs in the decade since the GFC.

The predominantly public sector funded or regulated industries of Public Admin, Education and Health remained the biggest drivers of jobs growth, with 45 percent of all jobs created over the past 12 months and 50 percent over the past decade.

When we look at the ABS labour market table showing the narrowly defined version of public sector vs private sector for Occupations, rather than by Industry, we see 41 percent of jobs by occupation last year were created directly by the three differing levels of Government in the public sector, instead of the long-run figure of about 12.5 percent.

In the private sector, 138,400 jobs were created and 74,500 were professionals, but private sector managers (and farmers) went backwards by 13,100 jobs. The hollowing out of female middle-class occupations by digital disruption continued, with 41,800 clerical and receptionist jobs going, virtually all of them full time, even as 42,200 sales jobs also disappeared.

The positive figures in the private sector side of the occupation table came from the creation last year of 76,600 full-time jobs for Tradies and Technicians. There were also an extra 91,200 mostly full-time jobs for the semi-skilled and unskilled blue-collar workers (machine operators, drivers, labourers and cleaners). However, the bulk of these jobs were low paid and those that weren’t, such as Tradies, were coming off a very low base in mid-2016, keeping wages low.

So where were these middle class white collar jobs lost and where were the blue-collar jobs gained?

Regional Variations.

The earlier post-GFC map link and the latest map link are shown here.

https://educationgeo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=de5ec5b142644631976efa3b384f6948

Australia Labour-Force-2008-2016

https://educationgeo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0a950e5ff5bc4ff2adff2c76baac084a

Australia Labour-Force-May-17

The online maps show the more recent national recovery in blue collar jobs seems to have also driven up employment levels and participation rates in many mixed working class and agricultural regions on the fringes of our major cities, like La Trobe – Gippsland in Victoria and Logan – Beaudesert in Queensland.

In New South Wales, the formerly hard hit and relatively low SES remote and rural regions like Murray, and Far West and Orana have shown a post GFC recovery and a bounce-back of jobs under threat from technology which is supported by both the national summary data and the regional data.

Well outside the capital cities, we saw a strong local recovery in the jobs market include many working-class economies which had been doing it tough in the eight years since the GFC and these include Townsville – which is genuinely heartening to see – along with other Queensland regions like Toowoomba, Ipswich, Cairns and Mackay. So, we’re seeing some growth, but from historically very low base levels.

When it comes to job losses, it’s a little surprising that some of the richer inner-city regions of Sydney, Brisbane and Perth were shedding jobs in the 12 months to May 2017.

Demographic Profiles.

After running these figures through our database for some simple correlations, we saw that the (lower SES) regions which gained the most jobs in the 12 months to May 2017 were those containing lower income, young parents, with few educational qualifications and little vocational training and living in what seemed to be often overcrowded, State rental housing, with younger children.

We saw a mix of the more evangelical religions, like Seventh Day Adventist and Other Protestant, which we note often in the urban fringe seats of south east Queensland, along with Aboriginal Traditional Religions and Languages from regions like the NT Outback and Far West NSW.

Those regions heading backwards during the last year were older, specifically aged from 55 years and above. They were also reasonably well off. Their residents tended to be retired, relying on superannuation and Government pensions for income.

Mortgage stress made a showing here and this could be a pointer to middle class persons in their late fifties, transitioning to retirement and building up super balances to discharge their mortgage only when old enough to receive the aged pension.

Finally, we should note that, while there were only small drops in the national summary figures for women in full time real estate jobs, those regions across Australia with the greatest proportion of real estate agents were shedding jobs over the past year and it was statistically significant to 99.9 percent confidence levels.

The bounce back from blue collar jobs during the past year is a welcome sign of some recovery in the private sector, but strong bias towards public-sector jobs growth over the last 12 months infers that the apparent healthy recovery in the national labour market figures may not be sustained.