Tag Archives: Demographics

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Had a chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and  floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 26th March, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles Tags : 

I caught up with John Stanley from 2GB/4BC on Tuesday night for an informal chat about an election review article I’d written for the Australian Financial Review on Monday. Here is a  .pdf link to that page.

John and I talked about demographic and political events and themes over the timeline since the May 21, Federal 2022 election, including the curious cases of State and Federal leaders from supposedly opposing parties, and why they manage to share what, for them and their constituents, can be a mutually beneficial political relationship, as Frenemies.

As I was often told when I was a member of the Australian Senate: Your enemies aren’t the ones sitting opposite you mate, they’re the ones behind you.

I’ve just finished writing a longer piece for the AFR on the long term Australian demographic trends dominating Federal politics now and into the next decade, which is in the AFR Easter Edition today. I hope you enjoy it.

 


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Australian Female Participation Rates and Independent School Market share.

Australian Female Participation Rates and Independent School Market share.

Category:Demographics Tags : 

🎓I put on my Education Geographics hat today to write an opinion piece for the Australian Financial Review for Tuesday’s paper and you’ll find it now in the online edition on this link (behind the paywall):

🔗  View this story in the AFR

The story discusses the choices confronting all parents when they choose a school for their kids. Essentially, my experience profiling schools over the last 20 years doing hundreds of detailed school profiles points to the balance between aspiration and affordability as being the key determinant of school choice. 🏣

As more women have entered the workforce during the last two decades, they have been able to afford a greater range of choices for their kids, across the three sectors. You can see that in the little chart here on Australian Female Participation Rates and Independent School Market share. As the female jobs increased, so did Independent Market Share. It’s the job itself that pays the school fees and the actual size of the pay check is not as significant.


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Political Pitfalls Ahead - AFR New Year Special

Political Pitfalls Ahead

Category:Demographics,Education,Election Profiles,Election Profiles 2022,Health,Housing Tags : 

I have a little opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review’s New Year Special Edition on some of the political and economic issues awaiting the attention of the Commonwealth Government during 2023 and AFR subscribers can find it here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albo-looks-a-shoo-in-but-a-lot-could-go-wrong-in-2023-20221227-p5c8we

The story uncovers some unexpected Covid impacts for 2023 and beyond for population growth, the labour market, the economy and the housing market, along with Energy, Health and Education.

Education Geographics Chief Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has prepared a publicly-available online map, showing the latest spatial impacts of Covid on population growth and you can access the map here:  https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/05c26440e9474666ba48ecc8384f24d8

Education Geographics Chief Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has prepared a publicly-available online map, showing the latest spatial impacts of Covid on population growth

We hope you enjoy the article and the map. All the best for Christmas and the New Year folks!


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Political Voices: Past, Present and Future

Category:Election Profiles Tags : 

Profiling of the Voices 2019 demographics by Australian Development Strategies shows that grassroots campaigns by Voices candidates against Liberals in 2022 – led by professional women – could be even more devastating for Labor MPs if turned against them in 2025.

This means that the Federal election of 2022 is not so much a contest between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but more a contest about what future Labor and Liberal Governments will look like.

In the mid-1980’s, male Tradespersons was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and Tradies dominated the ALP voting profile, and Female Professionals played an equally important role for the Liberal voting profile.

But both major parties have been challenged in 2022 by the loss of their historical bases of primary vote support during the past 40 years, among Tradies and Miners for Labor, and among Professionals for the Liberals.

The problem for both major parties is that, by November 2021, Female Professionals was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and there were twice as many Professional Persons as Tradespersons, Clerks or Service Workers. And their vote is up for grabs.

I chart the demographics underling the decline in the attached
🔗 PDF – Political Voices Past, Present and Future

Political Voices Past, Present and Future by John Black, Australian Development Strategies

Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.

Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.

Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022

Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Map showing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right)

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right)