Forthcoming Federal Elections Current State of Play Across Individual Seats

I had a story in the New Year’s edition of the AFR on the current state of play across individual seats at the forthcoming Federal Election.

Here’s the link to the story, behind the AFR paywall:🔗 It looks like Albo might need that beach house in 2025  https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/it-looks-like-albo-might-need-that-beach-house-in-2025-20241227-p5l0ss.

There’s a lot that can happen to impact these outcomes in seats between now and May 17 (the deadline for the election), but the best available evidence right now points to a narrow win for Peter Dutton and the Coalition, with solid gains in both New South Wales and Victoria.

The range of swings is currently benefiting the ALP at the expense of the Greens in the higher income inner urban seats now being contested by the Greens, with the Greens picking up some Labor votes in working class seats that the Greens can’t win. But in net terms, the Greens are standing still in terms of total votes, while the ALP is heading down for a primary vote below 30 percent. In mathematical and spatial terms, these trends leave the Coalition the big winners in the traditional swinging voter urban seats.

Here’s a chart which sums up the trends across income ranges for families with kids.

At the far left we see the primary votes for both the Greens and for the Coalition have risen at the expense of the ALP since 2022 in seats where one in four family incomes are below $100k per annum. For seats where one in four families have incomes between $100k and $150k, the swings aren’t significant.

One in four aspirational families have incomes between $150k and $200k per annum and their seats are swinging strongly against the Greens and pulling down the ALP vote after preferences. For wealthier seats with family incomes above $200k, the ALP have gained some swings at the expense of the Greens, but not enough to lift the ALP 2PP vote.

Source Redbridge Accent Research & ADS